Oil: Supply and Demand? Hardly!

Reprint from Seeking Alpha, October 30, 2009 – By Julian Murdoch

For most commodities, you can look at the underlying forces driving supply and demand and understand what will move the market. Except, it seems lately, for oil. Prices have risen so far, so fast from their mid-February lows that some investors have started to wonder: Is the price of crude decoupling from supply and demand?

Not quite. But right now, supply and demand only tells part of the story.

Oil Supply And Demand

Globally, we are awash in oil. As reported in the EIA’s latest “This Week in Petroleum,” crude oil inventories went up yet again this week, gaining 778,000 barrels. While this increase was less than half of the 1.91-million-barrel increase analysts had forecasted, crude oil inventory is still well above the five-year average for this time of year. (Oil still dropped a bit though, due to a huge increase in gasoline inventories when the market had expected a drawdown. See “This Week’s Oil Guesses Off The Mark” for more on that story.)

OPEC has publicly stated that they believe inventories in developed OECD countries to be equal to roughly 61 days of demand—a number OPEC is none too happy about. They’d prefer the world to be constantly on the brink of running out (that is, 55 days or less). So with all of this supply, you’d expect to see OPEC talking production cuts—or at least a drop in the price of oil.

Instead, last week the group discussed the need to increase production, so as to keep oil under $80—it seems even OPEC thinks prices are still too high. As OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri told Bloomberg:

“Anything above $80 will really hamper economic growth. Watch the floating storage, if that is eliminated, and watch the stocks, if they are at 52, 54 days, then OPEC will take action.”

Of course, if the floating stocks (that is, oil stored at sea) remain at current levels and inventories stay full, then apparently OPEC will just sit back and rake in the money.

It’s The Dollar, Stupid

So if supply and demand isn’t driving oil prices, what is?

It comes back to the strength—or lack thereof—of the U.S. dollar. As OPEC member Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah told Bloomberg:

“Sometimes the price of oil has no correlation to demand and supply. Now what we are seeing is that oil has a strong correlation with the dollar.”

Of course, what he most likely meant to say is that right now, oil has a strong negative correlation with the dollar. Just look at the relationship between oil and the dollar since the beginning of 2007:

The top graph compares the movement of oil prices to movements in the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of global currencies to show its relative strength (or weakness). Underneath, we’ve plotted the correlation between the dollar and oil over the same time period.

In periods of positive correlation (fairly rare for oil and the dollar), rising oil prices coincide with a strengthening dollar. But when the correlation is negative, increases in oil prices coincide with a weakening dollar—which is exactly what we’re seeing right now. As the dollar moves down, oil moves up and vice versa.

Note that although the dollar doesn’t swing very widely compared to the price of oil, the correlation between the two often does. In addition, it’s rare that oil and the dollar move in lockstep—far more commonly, the two will move in opposition to one another.

There’s an inherent logic to this: All else being equal, oil, being priced in dollars, should go up in price, simply because the dollar weakens on the world stage.

And as our friend from Qatar points out, we’re at a cyclical nadir of correlation.

Where Does Oil Go Next?

With such ample supply and prices tied more to the dollar than demand, where does the oil market go from here?

Clues can be found higher up the supply chain, since oil, like all commodities, needs to be transported. Just as looking at the Baltic Dry Index reveals insight into the health of base metals and coal markets, we can look at the tanker industry to get a feel for where the oil market might be headed.

So far, all signs there have pointed to glut as well. There is ample supply of oil tankers in most areas of the world. In fact, rental rates on ships traveling from the Middle East dipped below running costs this year, because too many ships were available, allowing oil producers to have their pick of contracts.

That may be about to change, however, as rental rates are starting to rise on routes such as the one from Saudi Arabia to Japan, which had climbed 10 percent as of October 26. As the economy recovers and oil demand begins to rise, so too should rental rates for tankers.

Nor can we forget about China, whose demand for oil continues to grow; September imports were 15 percent higher than the previous year. China has also shown an interest in acquiring more oil resources, even though many of these deals have not gone through. Last week’s “Weekly Tanker Opinion” by Poten & Partners, a global broker and commercial adviser for ocean transport, said the following:

“Though some future Chinese imports will be received through pipelines, tanker owners have reason to welcome China’s recent energy investments as they will ultimately result in incremental increases in ton-mile demand. Chinese sponsored exports have already helped transform the West Africa to Far East voyage from a sleepy backhaul into a primary money-making voyage and Venezuela’s increased exports to China have supported Caribbean to Far East rates.”

The one fly in the ointment, however, is the 890 million barrels of capacity that should come online over the next few years in the form of new tankers. More ships will add noise to any effort to use tanker rates as an early-warning indicator of Chinese demand.

Does all this mean that supply and demand no longer matter? Of course not. But it does point to the momentary hypersensitivity of oil as a dollar play, not just an energy play. With the caveat that Chinese demand seems to be staying strong, there’s little doubt the world is at least temporarily oversupplied—not at all-time highs, but replete with oil nonetheless.

You Are a Genius—Unlocking the Power of the Mind

Very appropriate title for everyone; you ARE a genius.  Jim is sharing very valuable solutions to expand your horizons.

In order to accept the potential of your genius and maximize your life, read this article a couple of times.  Apply it to what is happening in your world right now, identify and be grateful… CSea Perkins

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Take care to feed and stimulate your brain, and you will expand your mind. A healthy brain is central to a healthy mind. The two are inextricably connected. We need to see the human brain and mind with wonder, awe and inspiration.

But first, what do we mean by “learning?”

Here’s how some dictionaries define it:

–the act, process, or experience of gaining knowledge or skill
–knowledge or skill gained through schooling or study
–behavioral modification especially through experience or conditioning
–to gain knowledge, comprehension, or mastery through experience or study

brain food

Keep this in mind; learning is gaining knowledge through various means.

Now, a little about the brain:

The brain is the equivalent of a human supercomputer. Your brain is more complicated than any computer mankind has ever made. Maximizing your brain’s ability is essential to becoming the success you desire to become—because it controls who you are. It is the command center involved in and controlling absolutely everything you do. Your brain determines how you think, feel and act.

Simply put: When your brain is working at peak performance, it allows you to be your best, because it controls the rest.

Here are some facts about the brain:

It is about 2% of body weight.
It consumes about 20-30% of the body’s energy.
There are about 100 billion neurons in the brain.
Each neuron or nerve cell is connected to other nerve cells in the brain.
There are more than 1,000,000,000,000,000 connections in the brain.
Each one of these neurons is a little “learning center” capable of storing knowledge.

Needless to say, most of us have barely scratched the surface when it comes to tapping into those neurons!

There are some basic influences on the brain that shape how it functions and how far it develops.

Some of these include genes, health, injury, self-talk, life experiences, stress and study (or lack of it). Notice I said that these influence the brain, but they do not determine how far you can go or what you can learn, except perhaps in the case of severe injury or mental retardation. In other words, you have the incredible opportunity to go as far as you desire!

—Jim Rohn

Scientists See Blast From Past — 13 Billion Years Ago

This is so amazing; pleased to share with those that would also be enthralled.  Reprint from Reuter’s.

Date: 30-Oct-09
Country: US
Author: Reuters

File image shows a time exposure of the night sky above the Swiss mountain resort of Grindelwald January 10, 2008.
Photo: Stefan Wermuth

WASHINGTON – Astronomers have seen the furthest back in time ever, measuring light from a star that exploded 13 billion years ago, just after the dawn of the universe.

They traced a gamma-ray burst called GRB 090423 to see the light from the massive star that died 630 million years after the Big Bang that brought the universe into being, they reported in the journal Nature on Wednesday.

Two separate teams measured the redshift of the object at about 8.2. Redshift is the distortion of light as it travels across space and time and is often likened to the sound of a train rising and falling as it approaches and passes the listener.

This extreme redshift — the highest ever recorded — shows the burst occurred when the universe was less than 5 percent of its current age, Nial Tanvir of Britain’s University of Leicester and colleagues reported.

“The redshift measured for GRB 090423 means that the burst occurred at a time when the universe was about nine times smaller than it is today — putting the timing of the event at about 630 million years after the Big Bang,” Bing Zhang of the University of Nevada wrote in a commentary.

“Gamma ray bursts are the most violent explosions in the universe,” he added.

“They are believed to be associated with the formation of stellar-sized black holes or rapidly rotating, highly magnetized neutron stars during cataclysmic events such as the collapse of a massive star or the coalescence of two compact stellar objects.”

In this case, the star’s death long ago was bright enough to outshine even galaxies and will help scientists understand what happened in the early days of the universe.

World Environment News – Chamber Faces Dissent From Big U.S. Firms On Climate – Planet Ark

World Environment News – Chamber Faces Dissent From Big U.S. Firms On Climate – Planet Ark.

The controversy continues, as does the severe damage to our environment.

“The Chamber does not represent our views on the urgent need for climate legislation,” said Peter O’Toole, a spokesman for GE, the largest U.S. conglomerate. “We need climate legislation and a price for carbon in the U.S. now.”

3 Ways To Stop Creating Resistance

overcome resistance

It is a special day when Michael releases a new Article, especially one so valuable to what we are doing every day.  Please take the time to carefully and thoroughly read Michael’s valuable advice.

Keywords in the title, stop creating resistance. First you need to admit that you are indeed creating resistance in the way you communicate.  It is ok, Michael has many excellent recommendation on how to improve.

Be it manufacturer’s rep, sales or networking; you can put yourself in these circumstances and improve your odds.

Choose your words carefully; think before speaking and refrain from speaking when you should be listening and learning from them.  Practice changing up how you typically respond or initiate a question.

If  you face no resistance when approaching large commercial clients, you won’t need this knowledge… CSea Perkins

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While I was observing an Opportunity Meeting, I noted three things about the presentation that were what could be called, “resistance creators”.

Could you be doing something similar without realizing it?

1. First, the presentation included justifying statements from the presenter like… “Network Marketing isn’t what you think it is” and… “It’s not a pyramid scheme” with him proceeding to explain what he thought it was and why it wasn’t a pyramid scheme.
2. He then continued to overcome some of the “perceived objections” that people “supposedly” have about Network Marketing, such as its legality and so on…
3. The presentation also made comparing statements that included how the company… “Had the best products… is the number one company in its field… had the best compensation plan… etc.”

At the end of this, one of the guests turned to me and said, “I didn’t think there was anything illegal about Network Marketing? And what’s a pyramid scheme?”

“Also” He added, “I didn’t know there were other companies doing the same thing. I’d like to check them out.”

I later discovered that others had the same reaction.

So why this reaction?

Well, the presenter on the stage had unknowingly created resistance and doubt by making justifying statements and overcoming resistance when there was none to be overcome. He was also comparing the company and its products when it was unnecessary to do so, and assumed his own fears were the fears of everyone else.

Do you find yourself doing this? Justifying, comparing or stating something when it doesn’t need to be?

Do you unknowingly instill doubt into the minds of people you talk with and then wonder why they resist you?

Do you find yourself saying the above and other things like…

“I know what you’re thinking…”

“You’re probably thinking…”

“Let me tell you why this is…”

I can guarantee 100% that people do not think what you think they think! In fact, your thinking their doubt and fear. It reveals itself in your words, your tonality and your bearing. can get in your way. Your doubt and fear actually creates

So what to do?

As I’ve said many times, “Awareness is the first step to change”.

Awareness allows you to change your thinking.

Changing your thinking will change what you say.
Changing what you say will change your behavior.
Changing your behavior will change the way people respond to you.
Changing the way people respond to you will change your results for the benefit of both of you!

So think about this! At your meetings…

1. Instead of saying… “Network Marketing isn’t what you think it is.”

   Use… “For many of us in this room, Network Marketing is a wonderful way to have your own business because…” and list some generic advantages. End by asking a question, such as…

   “How would it feel if you could do the same thing and receive extra income each month, or even give up your dependency on having to work for someone?”

2. Instead of overcoming perceived objections which means you think you know what everyone is thinking…

   Just keep your thoughts to yourself and address anything that comes up later.

3. Instead of saying… “We have the best compensation plan…”

   Use… “We have a generous compensation plan that rewards people well.“ Then continue by asking…

   “Have you ever thought of starting your own full or part-time business so that you can create your own security and start taking care of yourself and your family once again?”

   And how about this?

   Instead of saying… “We have the best products…”
   
   Use… “We have proven natural products that are designed to keep people healthy by making up for the lack of nutrition in most people’s diets… a deficiency that is causing so many people to die of cancer and other modern day diseases.”

   “Have you ever thought about having a healthier life, helping others have happy and healthier lives as well, and receiving an income for it at the same time?”

Can you feel the difference?

And you don’t need to be involved in formal style presentations to use these ideas. Any time you’re speaking with a potential business partner or customer, these ideas will help you get better results and a better response.

Be aware of what you are thinking and saying. Language creates reality. Are you unknowingly creating what you don’t want?

Language is an incredibly powerful tool. As you can see from this article, if you use language incorrectly you can cause all sorts of problems for yourself.

“Natural Selling” and the Natural Selling Conversation Framework are designed to help you use language correctly to get the results you want in life and your business.

The tips I’ve shared with you in this article are just a fraction of the wealth of information that you’ll discover in the “Natural Selling Home Study” course. If you’re serious about your success, my book, “How To Sell Network Marketing Without Fear, Anxiety Or Losing Your Friends!”, and the 2 audio programs included in the Home Study Course are the fastest and easiest way to become an expert at using language for your business and personal success.

So don’t take a chance with your success and your future. Become a master of “Natural Selling” and take charge to create the reality you desire.

Have a peaceful and prosperous week…

If you’d like to leave a comment about this article please click here

Best Selling Author of “How to Sell Network Marketing Without Fear, Anxiety or Losing Your Friends!“ – Selling from the Soul. Ancient Wisdoms. Modern Practice.

INTELLECTUALL TRUTH :EX-POLLUTION:

protect this

This well written article was in my Facebook inbox.  Just finished reading and felt the information presented by Nicolas would be of great interest to others.  Would really appreciate your comments on this topic… CSea Perkins

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TROPICAL RAIN FOREST DEGRADATION AND DEFORESTATION:

As we scan the globe for signs of environmental degradation, Earth is showing physical signs of man made diseases, electro-magnetic field weakness, ecological contamination and physical signs of specie extinction visible everywhere on this planet. Forty percent of the Earth’s surface has been converted into farmland and half of the tropical forests have been destroyed or degraded. Productive pastor lands are turning into deserts, and low coastal regions are threatened by further increasing flood zones. Flooding will increase in this upcoming decade, contributing to multiple super-strain viruses evolving during this ongoing “Climatic Crisis,` rapidly `spreading out world wide.

Our earth’s protective atmospheric skin or Ozone have also been damaged, fresh water is declining in quality and quantity, plant and animal species are displaced and going extinct every hour, this is the end result of increased food consumption and over population on this planet. There are many species of fish that exist only in small isolated oceanic pockets that still remain pristine.

The ozone layer or skin, is a mass of oxygen or O3 atoms that serve as shield in the atmosphere against the harmful ultra violet sunrays. Ozone being made up of oxygen atoms, oxygen react with carbon monoxide, this reaction would use up more oxygen atoms

When there are more carbon monoxide atoms going to the atmosphere, the volume of oxygen would decline, such is the case of ozone depletion. Another dangerous side effect that deforestation has is the water table underneath the ground. The water table is a source of drinking water for people living around forested areas. The supply of water underground could also dry up if not replenished regularly. Forest’s absorb most of the rain fall to the soil through their roots.

Plant species are disappearing along with tropical forests. As the world population increases yearly, the million dollar question is, how much can this earth, having this environmental stress factor really handle? We may eventually revert backwards into stone age and possible ice age conditions, the worst case scenario is the Mars comparison, having no plant life to support the biospheric living conditions above ground.

Our future energy and food consumption will double and create strenuous, epidemic conditions. Humanity will be required to work more in order to secure shelter and food, prices will eventually skyrocket, basic food commodities will be scarce and expensive. This collective human carbon print is bound to have a negative impact on the environment and well being of this planet. Very little is said or exposed on media or government levels concerning this major deforestation and depletion crisis.

We all have to think more “Green“ preserve and regulate over-consumption, North America’s wasteful consumption and unsustainable ideologies have to be changed. Our out dated and modern day model creates economic and social inequalities in less fortunate countries around the world. Narrowing this gap between rich and poor, will enhance food and water security along with health care, there is no legitimate reason for world poverty to exist in this century.

Energy impacts every aspect of our lives, energy to cook, heat our homes, drive our cars, these are only some of our basic needs:

Wikipedia defines, deforestation as;“ The conversion of forested areas to non-forested land as pastures, urban use, logging purposes, that can result in land and waste land. In many countries, deforestation is ongoing, reshaping climate and global geography. Deforestation is the final end result from the removal of trees. Without sufficient reforestation, this results in declining specie habitat and bio-diversity, wood for fuel and industrial use, diminishing the quality of life“.

Human induced deforestation may be accidental such as in the case of forests in Europe adversely affected by (acid rain). Improperly applied logging, fuel wood collection, fire management (grazing) can also lead to unintentional deforestation.

Most anthropogenic (human) deforestation is deliberate. The future consequences of deforestation are largely unknown, this unknown X- category also fits into my ex-pollution theory, because it lacks unknown scientific data, further studies have to be made.

Deforestation is the process of converting forested land like we mentioned earlier, into non-forest sites that are ideal for crop raising, urbanization and industrialisation have drastically affected these deforested sites. The effects of deforestation can be classified and grouped in categories such as, deforestation habitat depletion zones, bio-diversity and toxic side effects, environmental and social settings.

Deforestation basically involves killing trees in forest’s which then create various affected regions that can only be enumerated as results of the activity. When the forest is destroyed, nature has to basically provide for the loss of this void and renew the damaged forest. Reforestation is one concept that is used by replanting trees, but this method is proven to be a much harder effort than deforestation.

This simply means, the rate of deforestation has not been offset by the rate of reforestation. The environment has already been dramatically affected by deforestation. The X-factor concerning the actual damage done cannot be measured or predicted by science, this man made condition is further contributing to air pollution and global warming. Pollution is rapidly growing because of deforestation and there also seems to be an ever growing population explosion that demands more deforestation. Forests help in reducing Co2 levels in the air, the extended depletion of these groups of trees is gradually increasing the risk that carbon monoxide would reach the atmosphere, resulting in the depletion of the ozone layer.

Water sinks into the ground and eventually replenishes the supply of water in the water table. Forest depletion causes water falling down as rain, thus flooding occurs instead of absorbing the water, the earth’s surface not being able to retain the rain by the soil. Water from rain does not stay in soil long because of the evaporation, trees absorb the water and retain it. The water table is then un-replenished, leading to drying up the wells.

Forest’s include various species of plants and trees, they also have different natural regions that occupy this space which means, various animals around these plant species world wide are in danger of losing their accustomed habitation grounds. Many of these animals could still be saved if Man would be able to reforest these regions and malpractice of slash and burning of the forest would be totally abandoned.

Man has taken a way the homes from all of these animals, creating a homeless and desolate environment for these creatures. Future development should consider working with the environment and not against it. We should learn how to incorporate the forest and be part of this beautiful nature.

Cities with concentrated smog pollution should consider reforestation, incorporating more of these trees within the city community even if it means planting on top of high-rise buildings and homes. Incorporating a garden over your roof may not be appealing with your home design, but this would actually insulate your home during the summer and also be able to absorb Co2 emissions, recycling back clean oxygen into the air.

One major effect of deforestation is climate change, abrupt changing temperatures in nearby communities, lack of photosynthesis in big cities increase carbon levels and lack of cooling down communities that live in hot areas like Arizona, trees and plants naturally cool down and help retain moisture in the air.

Deforestation is contributing to increased global warming, climate around the globe becomes warmer as more harmful rays of the sun come through our atmosphere, not absorbed by plants that filter these harmful UV rays.

We should all plant trees and have gardens in our back yards and roof tops, even on top high rise apartment buildings. This change will be good for our health and the environment. Trees provide oxygen, they also absorb carbon dioxide which also cools the planet, Mankind’s well being depends on these plants and forests.

The forest provides us with food, shelter, warmth, and oxygen, this a vital component, it must be respected and protected. New renewable energy like, solar, wind, bio-fuels and hydro contribute only a minuscule global percentage of the total energy package. Although we are headed in the right direction using clean energy, we will have to partially include oil products while new transitions are made.

INTELLECTUALL TRUTH :EX-POLLUTION:
Author: Nicolas Hermes.

CSea says Thank You

Please enjoy a short version of a Photo Flash of the Nanotech Fuel team.

When you click the link above, you may wish to turn your speakers on and scroll down to see each person’s name.

As we end October heading into November, the Fall themed THANK YOU is dedicated to this incredible team of Certified Fuel Analysts I have the honor of working with.

Grateful attitudes making a serious difference in reducing the world’s toxic emissions from transportation and related equipment.

It will continue to be updated when Distributors send their pictures in.  In other words, would the rest of you please forward your photo’s?

What Motivates YOU?

By Russ Yeager CFT, CPA

Owner, Fitness Together Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Norcross

Motivation is the reason we get out of bed in the morning instead of sleeping all day. It is what drives us to get to work or the gym and work harder, smarter, and more efficient than the day before.

Motivation is the reason that great ideas are turned into great accomplishments. Motivation is what drives us to get things done!

Have you ever found it puzzling and sometimes frustrating that at certain times you are extremely motivated and feel like nothing can stop you as you work towards achieving your life long goals, while at other times your motivation seems to be almost nonexistent? Why is that? ……..

To read the rest of this article click on the following link and a PDF of the whole article will appear:   Russ Yeager’s Article

Today is a good day

Today is going to be a good / good day. <– CLICK

Allow me to extend a special ‘thank you’ to everyone I have been blessed to meet.  Enjoy this.

SHARE THIS WITH EVERYONE AND POST THE LINK TO YOUR PROFILE!

This was removed in youtube due to copyright infringement.. CREDIT STILL GOES T…O HARPO PRODS. no copyright intended. Copyright Disclaimer: Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use.

Length:4:38

When the going gets tough; the tough get going

keep climbing; never give up

This is a topic seriously impacting everyone this past full year but not new to this most recent recession.  The phrase has probably been around close to a Century and it proves just how strong and resilient people are (can be).

Unless you posses the strengths and characteristics of a winner, you may be left very lonely in today’s environment.  This is indeed the era of the entrepreneur allowing your creativity and brilliance to dictate your future.

We bring about what we think about so think and do for others to increase your own rewards.

In the event you haven’t noticed, the most successful / balanced people achieve their success through focusing on the needs of others. Those that succeed by staying focused on themselves often fit in the greed category and they have to work so much harder to keep or grow their fortunes.  Funny how the ‘law’ works.  Be in gratitude, that will keep you aligned with your most important goals.

To be in gratitude indicates you focus on what you have, not what you are lacking.  If you think about what you don’t have., complain about it and keep thinking about it, you remain without it.  If you give thanks for receiving what you do not yet have; it will come. Yes, ponder that for a while.  Your belief process begins within, you have the ability to control it.

We are all made of energy, as is the planet and all living matter.  That energy IS CONNECTED and if you don’t believe that, think again. What you think, say and do DOES IMPACT the energy you project and receive.

So, be careful what you wish for and enjoy the rewards.  Do the eco.nomics and you will always win… CSea Perkins, CFA